Four States Left Below $3 a Gallon as Gas Prices Surge Across America

Something shifted at American gas stations in late February. Drivers pulling up to the pump found prices higher than the week before, sometimes by a few cents, sometimes by far more. By the time the first full week of March closed out, those increases had stacked up into something much harder to ignore.

A war thousands of miles away is now showing up on fuel receipts from coast to coast. Oil prices crossed $100 a barrel, and the national average for a gallon of regular gas hit $3.48, a 16% jump in just seven days, according to a GoBankingRates analysis of AAA data. Prices are up in all 50 states since U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28. Gas hasn’t sat at these levels since 2024. Four states are still holding the line below $3 a gallon. Whether they stay there is another matter entirely.

War at the Root of It

Follow the price hike back far enough, and it leads to the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil travels each year. Since the military conflict with Iran escalated, tankers that normally carry crude oil out of the Persian Gulf stopped sailing. That disruption cut off a massive share of global supply almost overnight.

Crude oil makes up about 60% of what drivers pay at the pump. When oil prices jump, everything downstream gets more expensive: jet fuel, diesel for long-haul trucks, diesel for farm tractors. Few corners of the economy stay untouched for long.

“In just a week, consumers have seen gasoline prices surge at one of the fastest rates in years,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.

Analysts at AAA note that while these increases are aggressive, current prices still sit roughly $1.12 below the record highs of over $6.40 seen in October 2022. That may offer little reassurance to drivers filling up right now, but it does mark where prices could still go if tensions worsen further.

The Last Four Standing

Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, and Arkansas are the only four states where drivers can still fill up for under $3 a gallon. Kansas holds the national low at $2.92, followed by Oklahoma at $2.97, with Missouri and Arkansas both at $2.99.

All four are Midwest states, where lower fuel taxes and better access to regional refining infrastructure keep prices from climbing as fast as they do elsewhere. How long they remain below that psychological threshold with oil trading above $100 a barrel and shipping lane disruptions unresolved is an open question.

Indiana, a fellow Midwest state, shows just how fast conditions can change. Prices there jumped 24.2%, or 68 cents, in a single week to reach $3.48 per gallon, the largest percentage increase in the country. Ohio followed at 23.6% up. Florida climbed 21.2%, a 61-cent jump in one week that drivers in the Sunshine State felt hard. Iowa and Oklahoma each posted increases above 20%.

Northeast drivers landed somewhere in between. New York sits at $3.40 per gallon, Connecticut at $3.37, and New Jersey at $3.34. A 12-gallon fill-up in those states runs $40 to $41. Western states, by contrast, saw the smallest percentage moves. Hawaii was up just 3%, Washington up 6%, and Oregon up 7%. But that relative calm masks what those drivers were already paying before the latest surge.

California’s $5-Plus Reality

No state captures the full weight of this moment better than California. Drivers there paid a statewide average of $5.20 per gallon as of Saturday, more than a dollar above Washington, which came in second at $4.63, and Hawaii at $4.52. In San Francisco and Oakland, prices hit $5.60 a gallon. Los Angeles County reached $5.376 on Wednesday, March 11, its highest level since early 2024.

Southern California as a whole crossed well above the $5 mark. Orange County averaged $5.339, Ventura County $5.318, San Bernardino $5.285, and Riverside $5.267. Every major county in the region saw prices climb more than 79 cents compared to the previous month.

Two forces drove that spike, one global and one local. On the global side, the conflict with Iran pushed crude toward $100 a barrel and disrupted shipping lanes. On the local side, California operates as what analysts describe as a fuel island. State law requires a cleaner-burning fuel blend that cannot be imported from other states. When local production drops, retail prices respond fast.

That local production is shrinking. Pending closures of the Phillips 66 refinery in Los Angeles and the Valero facility in Benicia will further reduce the state’s refining capacity at precisely the wrong time. State legislators face pressure to close the refinery gap before more facilities wind down, with analysts warning that California could see averages approach $6 per gallon before the summer travel season begins. For daily commuters, those numbers translate directly into dollars lost.

“Gas right now is literally your arm and my leg,” said Amber Arias, a Sacramento-based commuter. “It’s a back and forth, so yeah, it’s crazy.”

Arias is far from alone. Across the state, drivers are cutting back on trips, switching to public transit where available, and downloading apps like GasBuddy to track down cheaper stations. A 12-gallon fill-up in California now costs more than $62 before a driver even pulls out of the station. Golden State residents know things could get worse. Back in October 2022, the statewide average hit $6.49 per gallon. Prices remain more than a dollar below that peak, but the rate of increase has been fast enough to shake even drivers long accustomed to paying more than everyone else.

Why California Always Pays More

Even before the war drove crude oil higher, California drivers were paying roughly $2 above the national average. Advocacy group Consumer Watchdog points to three structural factors beyond global oil markets that keep prices high: state taxes, environmental regulations, and refinery constraints.

Consumer Watchdog put forward five proposed reforms it says could help narrow that gap. Among them are requiring refiners to maintain minimum fuel inventories to prevent shortages from triggering price spikes, reinstating price-gouging penalties for excessive profits during periods of sharp increases, and expanding pipeline infrastructure to bring more gasoline into the state and increase competition among suppliers. Two additional proposals call on the California Energy Commission to use existing authority to enforce a steady fuel supply, and for greater public transparency on why current gasoline stocks are not easing pump prices.

Whether state legislators act on those proposals before the next refinery closes remains to be seen.

What Washington Is Saying

On the federal level, Energy Secretary Chris Wright moved to calm public concern in the days following the spike. Wright acknowledged the pressure drivers were feeling while framing the current situation as temporary.

“We want it [gas prices] back below $3 a gallon,” Wright told CNN. “And it will be again before too long.”

Wright also noted that despite the rapid climb, prices remain about $1.50 below their Biden-era peak. He added that he expected tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to resume once the immediate military situation stabilized.

Market analysts are less certain. If geopolitical tensions do not ease, or if further supply disruptions occur, forecasters warn that prices could continue climbing well into spring. Indiana, Ohio, Florida, and other states that saw some of the steepest one-week jumps may face continued pressure. For the four Midwest states still below $3, the buffer between them and the rest of the country could narrow faster than anyone expected.

For now, drivers from Sacramento to suburban New Jersey are recalibrating. Some are driving less. Some are choosing different stations. Some are paying and wincing. At $100 oil with no clear diplomatic resolution in sight, the mood at the pump is unlikely to improve before it gets a chance to get worse.