Scientists Discover ‘City-Destroying’ Asteroid Heading Toward Earth and Warn When It May Hit

A newly discovered asteroid, 2024 YR4, has caught the attention of astronomers due to its potential to pass uncomfortably close to Earth. First detected in December 2024, this space rock has been flagged by NASA and the European Space Agency as one to watch.

While the likelihood of an impact is low, the possibility remains, and scientists are racing to refine their calculations. If 2024 YR4 were to strike, the effects could be devastating, but ongoing observations may soon determine whether it poses a real threat—or if it will simply be another visitor passing by in the vastness of space.

Discovery of Asteroid 2024 YR4

On the night of December 27, 2024, a routine sky survey at the El Sauce Observatory in Chile led to a startling discovery—an unidentified object moving through space at high velocity. The asteroid, later designated 2024 YR4, was first detected by an automated telescope system designed to identify near-Earth objects (NEOs). These automated surveys, crucial to planetary defense, scan the night sky for celestial bodies that could pose a potential risk to Earth.

At first, 2024 YR4 appeared to be just another space rock among thousands of new asteroid discoveries made each year. However, as additional observations were gathered, it quickly became clear that this asteroid’s orbit would bring it dangerously close to Earth in the coming years. Within hours, astronomers alerted the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the European Space Agency’s Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre (ESA-NEOCC), two of the leading institutions responsible for assessing asteroid threats.

Unraveling the Asteroid’s Characteristics

Once an asteroid is discovered, astronomers must work quickly to determine its size, trajectory, and potential threat level. This process involves multiple telescopes across the globe continuously tracking the object’s movement and measuring its brightness. Based on these observations, 2024 YR4 was estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet (40 to 90 meters) in diameter—large enough to cause serious destruction if it were to strike Earth.

One of the most concerning aspects of this asteroid is its highly elliptical orbit, meaning it travels along an elongated path that brings it into close encounters with Earth, Mars, and even Jupiter. This orbital pattern increases the possibility of future gravitational interactions, which could alter its trajectory over time. While initial calculations suggest the asteroid will miss Earth, the uncertainty surrounding its long-term path makes it an object of intense scientific scrutiny.

Assessing the Threat of 2024 YR4

Once an asteroid is discovered, astronomers work quickly to determine whether it poses a genuine threat. In the case of 2024 YR4, its orbit brings it uncomfortably close to Earth, making it a priority for further study. While early calculations indicate a 1.3 percent chance of impact on December 22, 2032, this probability is expected to change as more data is gathered.

Refining the Impact Probability

Predicting an asteroid’s exact trajectory is challenging due to multiple factors, including gravitational influences from other planets, solar radiation pressure, and the asteroid’s own rotation. Scientists use computer models to simulate its path thousands of times, adjusting for these variables.

For now, the numbers suggest that there is a 98.7 percent chance that 2024 YR4 will safely pass by Earth, meaning the risk is low. However, history has shown that initial estimates can shift significantly with further observation. A well-known example is Apophis, an asteroid once thought to have a high chance of colliding with Earth in 2029. As more data was collected, scientists ruled out any impact risk. Astronomers are working to determine if 2024 YR4 will follow a similar path of reduced concern.

What Would Happen if 2024 YR4 Struck Earth?

While the probability of impact remains low, scientists are considering the potential consequences if 2024 YR4 were to collide with Earth. The severity of the event would depend on factors such as size, speed, angle of entry, and location of impact.

Potential Impact Scenarios

If 2024 YR4 entered Earth’s atmosphere, it could either explode in midair or strike the surface directly. Both scenarios could lead to significant destruction.

• Airburst Event: If the asteroid breaks apart before reaching the ground, it would release energy in the atmosphere, creating a powerful shockwave. A historical example is the 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor, which detonated 18 miles above Russia, injuring over 1,500 people and damaging thousands of buildings.
• Surface Impact: If the asteroid remains intact, it could strike with an energy equivalent to 8 megatons of TNT, over 500 times the power of the Hiroshima atomic bomb. This would create an explosion capable of flattening an entire city and generating seismic shockwaves.
• Ocean Impact: If 2024 YR4 were to hit the ocean, the result could be massive waves, potentially triggering tsunamis. However, the extent of this threat would depend on the depth and angle of impact.

Comparing to Past Events

The best historical comparison is the Tunguska Event of 1908, where an asteroid or comet exploded over Siberia with the force of 10–15 megatons, flattening an estimated 800 square miles of forest. A similar impact today could devastate a populated area, causing widespread casualties and destruction.

Fortunately, continued monitoring and improved impact predictions may rule out this possibility in the coming months. For now, astronomers remain focused on tracking 2024 YR4 to determine if it will remain a distant observer in space—or something more concerning.

Tracking 2024 YR4 and Mitigation Possibilities

Astronomers are closely monitoring 2024 YR4 to refine its trajectory before it becomes too faint to observe by mid-April 2025. Telescopes worldwide, including NASA’s Pan-STARRS in Hawaii and the European Southern Observatory in Chile, are working to collect as much data as possible. These observations will help determine whether the asteroid will safely pass Earth or if its orbit could shift enough to pose a real threat.

Tracking efforts focus on several key factors:

• Refining impact probability by improving orbital models with updated measurements.
• Studying the Yarkovsky effect, a small force caused by uneven heating from the Sun, which can gradually alter an asteroid’s trajectory.
• Accounting for gravitational interactions with Earth and other celestial bodies that may influence its future path.

For now, continued tracking remains the priority. The next significant opportunity to study 2024 YR4 will come in 2028, when it makes another close approach. By then, astronomers hope to have a definitive answer on whether it will remain a harmless visitor or if more serious action will be needed.

Keeping an Eye on the Skies

Asteroids like 2024 YR4 remind us that Earth is not isolated in the vastness of space. While the odds of an impact remain low, the discovery has sparked global interest, raising questions about how prepared we really are for potential cosmic threats.

Thankfully, modern technology allows astronomers to track these space rocks with incredible precision. Over the next few months, scientists will continue monitoring 2024 YR4, and with each new observation, we’ll get a clearer picture of whether it’s just passing by—or if it deserves more serious attention.

For now, there’s no need to panic, but its presence is a reminder that space is full of surprises. The more we invest in asteroid tracking and impact prevention, the better equipped we’ll be to handle anything the universe throws our way. One thing is certain: we’re watching, we’re learning, and we’re getting better at protecting our planet, one asteroid at a time.