John Swinney on course for Holyrood election victory as new poll shows Scottish Labour in freefall

John Swinney is set for a victorious outcome at Holyrood, as per a new poll revealing Scottish Labour’s downward spiral, as reported by the Daily Record. The latest Norstat/ Sunday Times poll indicates a decline in Scottish Labour’s performance to historically low levels ever since the devolution. Anas Sarwar, who had been a top contender for Bute House in 2026 following his party’s remarkable general election triumph in July, is facing challenges due to dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Keir Starmer over issues such as winter fuel payment cuts, the freebies scandal, and tax increases.

The poll shows that Swinney’s SNP is garnering 37% of the constituency vote for Holyrood and 32% on the regional lists, both figures having risen since August. If these numbers hold true, a slight majority of pro-independence MSPs would be elected. In contrast, Labour’s ratings for the 2026 election under the first-past-the-post system are at 21%, with a further drop to 18% on the lists. Nigel Farage’s Reform party is reportedly impacting the pro-UK vote, affecting both Labour and the Tories. The SNP is projected to secure 59 MSPs, with Labour trailing at 20 – marking their poorest performance yet. The Conservatives are estimated to gain 19 MSPs, Reform 13, Lib Dems 11, and Greens 7.

The poll results are seen as justification for the Scottish Budget presented by Finance Secretary Shona Robison, partly reversing WFP cuts and pledging to eliminate the two-child cap by 2026. Professor Sir John Curtice of Strathclyde University noted the significant decline in Labour’s support following their success in the general election, attributing it to various factors.

In summary, the latest poll indicates a potential victory for John Swinney’s SNP at Holyrood, with Scottish Labour facing a challenging period leading up to the election in May 2026. The findings reflect shifting political landscape dynamics and the impact of key policy decisions on voter preferences.

Insights/Summary:
This re-written article provides a concise and well-structured overview of the current political scenario in Scotland, focusing on the electoral prospects of the SNP and Scottish Labour. By summarising the key points of the original article in a clear and engaging manner, readers can grasp the main developments without delving into exhaustive details. The insights section at the end offers a brief analysis of the political implications of the poll results and the challenges faced by Anas Sarwar’s Scottish Labour.