Scientists Warn, One of World’s Supervolcanoes Is Waking Up: ‘It Will Plunge the Planet Into Chaos’

Deep beneath a bustling Italian city, something ancient and terrifying has begun to stir. For months, scientists have been monitoring increasingly alarming signals that suggest one of Earth’s most dangerous geological features is awakening from its long slumber. What they’re detecting defies the calm suburban neighborhoods and busy ports that sit unknowingly above.

Recent data has sent shockwaves through the international volcanology community, with researchers scrambling to understand the implications of readings that surpass anything recorded in decades. Ground-shaking events, unprecedented gas emissions, and subtle but relentless changes in the landscape are painting a picture that has experts deeply concerned about what might come next.

While millions of people go about their daily lives in the shadow of this hidden giant, a growing chorus of scientists warns that we may be witnessing the early stages of an event that could fundamentally alter life on Earth. What makes their warnings particularly chilling is that this isn’t science fiction—it’s a very real threat that has happened before and will undoubtedly happen again.

Something Massive Is Stirring Beneath Italy and It’s Not Vesuvius

When most people think of volcanic threats near Naples, Mount Vesuvius is the first to come to mind. However, a far more dangerous neighbor lurks just to the west, hidden beneath the seemingly peaceful port town of Pozzuoli. Campi Flegrei, known as the Phlegraean Fields, represents Europe’s closest approximation to a supervolcano.

Rather than forming a traditional peaked mountain, Campi Flegrei appears as a 13-kilometer-wide crater formed by prehistoric eruptions of unimaginable violence. Approximately 360,000 residents live directly above this sleeping giant, unaware that their homes sit atop one of the most potentially destructive geological features on the planet.

Recent scientific observations have documented alarming changes that suggest the ancient caldera is entering a new phase of activity. Unlike the gradual processes that typically characterize geological change, current developments are occurring at speeds that have caught researchers off guard.

When Earth’s Pressure Cooker Starts Making Noise

May 2024 brought a seismic wake-up call that reverberated far beyond Italy’s geological monitoring stations. A magnitude 4.4 earthquake struck the Campi Flegrei region—the strongest tremor recorded in the area for four decades. But this wasn’t an isolated event; it represented just one dramatic moment in a relentless series of over 3,000 more minor earthquakes recorded across the preceding six months.

Earthquake swarms of this magnitude and frequency typically indicate significant underground pressure changes associated with the rise of magma or the expansion of gas pockets. Scientists monitoring the situation report that the constant seismic activity has created an atmosphere of tension among residents, many of whom fled their homes during the larger quake.

Since the early 2000s, the caldera floor and the town above it have been rising at a rate of 3-4 centimeters annually—a geological phenomenon known as bradyseism. Even more remarkably, the ground has lifted an extraordinary 4 meters since monitoring began in the 1950s, creating visible changes in the landscape that residents can observe firsthand.

Such dramatic ground deformation typically occurs when underground magma chambers expand or when pressurized gases seek escape routes toward the surface.

Warning Signs That Have Scientists on High Alert

Beyond seismic activity, gas emission measurements have revealed equally troubling developments. Italy’s National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology reports daily carbon dioxide emissions ranging between 4,000 and 5,000 metric tons—an enormous volume that indicates significant underground activity.

“If the ground continues rising for long enough, the crust must eventually give way. The big unknown is how much more stretching the crust can take,” explains Prof Christopher Kilburn, a volcano expert at University College London who has been monitoring the situation closely.

Recent research led by the University of Naples has determined that approximately 80% of these gas emissions are directly linked to magma activity, with the remaining 20% resulting from interactions between hot fluids and underground rock formations. Such high percentages of magma-related emissions suggest that molten rock is moving closer to the surface.

Sophisticated monitoring equipment has detected magma at depths of just a few kilometers below ground—alarmingly shallow by volcanic standards. As this molten material rises, it depressurizes and releases volatile gases, creating the massive carbon dioxide emissions currently being observed.

When History Shows What’s Coming Could Be Catastrophic

Campi Flegrei’s geological history provides sobering context for current developments. Approximately 36,000 years ago, the supervolcano unleashed what scientists consider Europe’s greatest volcanic blast in at least 200,000 years. While not quite large enough to qualify as a “super-eruption” by modern technical standards, the event dumped ash across the entire Mediterranean region and as far as Russia.

The prehistoric eruption triggered a volcanic winter that reduced temperatures across eastern Europe by up to 9°C, creating climate disruptions that may have accelerated the decline of Neanderthal populations. Such massive atmospheric effects demonstrate how even “smaller” supervolcano eruptions can reshape entire continents.

More recently, the last confirmed eruption of Campi Flegrei occurred in 1538, creating the hill known as Monte Nuovo in just a few days. While relatively minor compared to prehistoric events, this eruption demonstrated how quickly volcanic landscapes can transform when underground pressures are released.

Four Million People Living in Volcano’s Crosshairs

The modern population density around Campi Flegrei poses an unprecedented humanitarian challenge should the volcano erupt again. More than four million people live within the potential impact zone, including the entire city of Naples and numerous surrounding urban centers.

Unlike remote volcanic regions where evacuations might involve thousands of people, Campi Flegrei threatens densely populated metropolitan areas with complex infrastructure, transportation networks, and economic systems. Coordinating emergency responses for such massive populations represents a logistical nightmare that emergency planners are still working to address.

The potential impacts extend far beyond the immediate lava flows. Volcanic ash can ground aircraft, destroy crops, clog machinery, and cause serious respiratory problems. Pyroclastic flows—fast-moving currents of hot gas and volcanic debris—could devastate entire neighborhoods within minutes of an eruption onset.

Italian authorities have raised the official alert level from green (normal) to yellow (caution). They are continuing to develop evacuation protocols, although moving millions of people quickly remains an enormous challenge.

Global Domino Effect Could Plunge Planet Into Chaos

While Campi Flegrei’s immediate impact would primarily affect southern Italy, a major eruption could have worldwide consequences that extend far beyond regional destruction. Volcanic ash ejected into the upper atmosphere travels vast distances, potentially covering much of Europe in thick, suffocating haze.

International air traffic would face immediate disruption as volcanic ash clouds ground commercial aviation across multiple continents. Agricultural systems throughout Europe could suffer devastating crop losses, creating food shortages that ripple through global markets.

The eruption of at least 2,800km³ of ash, debris,, and gas from Sumatra’s Toba volcano around 74,000 years ag, led to several years of severe cooling that, if it happened today, would likely devastate harvests around the world, researchers note about the potential for climate disruption from major volcanic events.

Sulfur gases released during major eruptions can trigger atmospheric cooling effects similar to the “Year Without a Summer” that followed Mount Tambora’s 1815 eruption in Indonesia. Such climate disruptions could stress already fragile global food supply chains and trigger widespread economic instability.

Scientists Use Engineering Models to Predict Volcanic Failure

Researchers have adapted mechanical failure modeling techniques from structural engineering to understand better how volcanic systems behave under extreme stress. These models help predict when underground rock formations might transition from gradual bending to sudden fracturing—a critical change that often precedes significant eruptions.

Current analyses suggest that the crust beneath Campi Flegrei is approaching this transition point, where accumulated stress could create fracture networks that provide escape routes for pressurized magma. Once such fractures develop, they can rapidly propagate downward until they intersect magma chambers, potentially triggering explosive eruptions.

Advanced monitoring systems, including GPS networks, satellite radar interferometry, and seismometer arrays, provide real-time data about ground deformation and earthquake activity. However, translating these measurements into accurate eruption predictions remains one of the most significant challenges in volcanology.

Yellowstone and Other Global Giants Also Showing Unrest

Campi Flegrei joins approximately 20 known supervolcanoes worldwide that have produced catastrophic eruptions in the past. Many of these systems are currently experiencing various levels of unrest that concern monitoring scientists.

Yellowstone National Park, home to America’s most famous supervolcano, regularly experiences ground deformation and earthquake swarms that keep it in international headlines. The Long Valley Caldera in California has exhibited persistent unrest since 1980 and is classified as a “very high threat” by the United States Geological Survey.

In South America, Chile’s Laguna del Maule has been swelling at extraordinary rates—up to 30 centimeters annually over the past two decades. Bolivia’s Uturuncu volcano shows uplift across more than 1,000 square kilometers, though current magma volumes appear insufficient for super-eruption scenarios.

All these systems are in what scientists call the “resurgence” stage, during which the accumulation of fresh magma causes ground deformation, earthquake swarms, and small-scale eruptions.

Warning System That Could Save Millions or Fail Completely

Modern volcanic monitoring relies on detecting changes that occur when magma accumulates or rises toward the surface. Rising magma must create space for itself, resulting in ground deformation that is detectable through GPS and satellite measurements. Breaking rock to reach the surface generates characteristic earthquake patterns that seismometers can identify.

However, research suggests that the buildup to significant eruptions might occur faster than previously thought. Studies of Long Valley indicate that preparation for its largest eruption, which occurred 750,000 years ago, may have taken less than one year, an insufficient time for comprehensive disaster preparation.

Research undertaken at Long Valley suggests, however, that the build-up to its most enormous eruption, around 750,000 years ago, may have been less than a year. Scientists warn about the potentially rapid onset of catastrophic volcanic events.

Such short warning periods would make it extremely difficult to implement food stockpiling and rationing measures necessary to survive the global cooling effects that follow significant eruptions.

Lottery Odds of Disaster Nobody Wants to Win

Statistical analyses suggest approximately 1 in 1,400 odds of a super-eruption occurring anywhere on Earth during a human lifetime. While these odds might seem reassuring, they represent far higher probabilities than many lottery jackpots that people win on a regular basis.

The average return periods between super-eruptions are estimated to be roughly 100,000 years; however, Earth’s geological systems don’t follow predictable schedules. Eruptions can cluster in time with much longer quiet periods, meaning multiple events could occur within relatively short timeframes.

Super-eruptions represent certainties rather than possibilities—they will happen again, somewhere on Earth. The only questions are when, where, and whether human civilization will be prepared for the consequences when they do occur.